Livsstilsförändringar för klimatet överskattas

Snart börjar klimattoppmötet i Paris. En stor del av diskussionerna och förslagen handlar om hur vi i västvärlden skall lägga om vår livsstil för att reducera utsläpp och föroreningar. Men är verkligen vår livsstil hela problemet? Och hur mycket kan vi egentligen påverka genom att förändra vår livsstil? Så länge diskussionen förs i termer av livsstilsproblematik hamnar vi längre och längre in i en återvändsgränd. Förändring av hur vi lever våra liv kan bara påverka utsläppen marginellt och innehåller inte lösningen på hur vi får ner utsläppen med 80 % som många menar är nödvändigt.

I Sverige kommer utsläppen av växthusgaser från i huvudsak inrikes transporter (ca 30 procent), industrin (ca 30 procent), el- och värmeproduktion (ca 10 procent), jordbruk (ca 10 procent), bostäder och lokaler (ca 5 procent) och avfallsförbränning (ca 5 procent).

Ställ dig frågan vilka av dessa utsläpp du kan påverka genom att förändra din livsstil. Naturligtvis kan man få ner utsläppen från transporterna genom att använda bilen mindre, köpa färre saker, välja närproducerat och så vidare. Men är det rimligt att bilberoendet kan minska med 80 %? Troligen inte. Däremot är det mycket rimligt att tänka sig att utsläppen från personbilar minskar med 80 % i och med ett teknikskifte från förbränningsmotorer till elmotorer. För att detta skifte skall ske spelar naturligtvis ekonomiska styrmedel och lagstiftning en avgörande roll.

Vidare kommer en stor del från utsläppen från el- och värmeproduktion. I resten av världen är denna andel den absolut största av de alla, då elproduktion sker i huvudsak i kolkraftverk och inte med kärn- och vattenkraft som i Sverige.  Hur mycket mindre el och värme kan vi använda genom att enbart leva klimatsmartare? Förmodligen går det inte att göra stora reduktioner, hur mycket man än förändrar sin livsstil.

Det blir tydligt att lösningen på klimatproblematiken inte enbart är en förändring av vår livsstil. Skall utsläppsmängderna minska är det nödvändigt att ny teknik utvecklas och används. De viktigaste teknikområdena är: koldioxidfri elproduktion, avskiljning och lagring av koldioxid samt el- och gasdrivna transporter.

Ett par saker måste hända för att mänskligheten skall ha en rimlig chans att komma till rätta med klimatproblematiken. Energikonsumtion måste styras över; dels från fasta fossila bränslen till naturgas och biogas, dels från fossila bränslen till elektricitet. Till exempel kan natur-/biogas användas i tunga transporter och industrin och personbilar drivas med elektricitet istället för bensin.

Elektricitet måste produceras på ett klimatneutralt sätt. Kärnkraften kommer att byggas ut något – den har dock sina egna problem. Vindkraftens andel i energimixen har potential att växa ordentligt, dock kommer man inte ifrån att teknik för avskiljning och lagring av koldioxid blir fundamental för att lösa energiekvationen i de kommande decennierna.

Politiker ställs inför uppgiften att prioritera mellan en uppsjö av olika tänkbara åtgärder för att åstadkomma förändring. Ofta saknas helhetsperspektivet och långsiktigheten. Det är kanske enkelt att bygga en argumentation för ytterligare en kärnkraftsreaktor i Sverige kring klimatfrågan, eller för höghastighetståg mellan Sveriges storstäder. Eller minskat bilresande, sänkt inomhustemperatur eller för något annat förändrat beteende. Om det är så illa ställt med klimatet som många hävdar, brådskar det dock att snabbt realisera de åtgärder som har störst långsiktigt genomslag på de faktiska utsläppen. I Sverige betyder det en omställning av fordonsflottan till el- och gasdrift, ökad naturgasanvändning i industrin och ökad biogasproduktion.

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